Winds of change?….fun Predictions for 2020 ?………

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  • #33979 Reply
    cyberk91
    Participant

    Prediction…..The plugin venders are really going to ramp up with new interesting products. Most of us producers really have never engineered on a ssl 4000 console or cannot afford to build our own multimillion dollar studio ….instead we do it in the box..so why do we care about the old analog equipment anymore besides there’s not much more old equipment to virtualize…every plugin vender out there has done it to death…I predict new and more effient plugins will rise up……

    why because of…..Artificial intelligence-based products..these are going to be coming on stronger than ever before…with just a click the track will be mixed and mastered for you…Isotope is one vender that already has plugins that do this to a degree

    Streaming is going to rule…Deezer will probably be King…they are rolling out new software this year to help their artists get better paid…..this may probably make the other guys nervous.

    Next Pro Tools dominance will lose a lot of ground to the other guys…there’s just to many DAWs that are very competitive.

    USB 4 becomes the new Thunderbolt and more

    Immersive Audio 360 Reality Audio…for all you cinematic producers

    Gear is going to get more expensive China natives want to get paid more and tariffs may be part of it also….until everything moves to Indonesia and Vietnam.

    Amplifier sims…have gotten way better…I myself have embraced this technology for years..I was laughed at scored by my band mates ..where’s the half stack at dude…I got tired of the backaches and dragging a pedalboard around…now my whole rig fits in an overnight bag..oh man how I love technology…

    #33981 Reply
    LAwriter
    Participant

    My thoughts…..

    In no particular order…..

    Pro Tools will continue to dominate the high end DAW world. Low end applications / users will continue to fall away from PT. Going most notably towards Cubase and Logic. Avid will not care. They still have the bulk of high end applications wrapped up. I will be sticking with PTHDX. I’m in too deep to mix things up now.

    Plug in manufacturers as a whole – for the most part – will still gravitate towards the low hanging fruit. It’s what the uninformed / ignorant public wants. High end creative developers will continue to break new innovative ground, making AMAZING products – and their plugins will be misunderstood by most of the masses who want a new 1176 or a Fairchild plug for $19.99.

    Schools will still be “selling the dream” rather than educating their student body on how to actually make a career. The professors teaching will continue to be those who did not (could not?) make it in the actual industry they are teaching about.

    Younger mixing engineers will still gravitate towards outboard gear. Outboard hybrid systems will continue to grow in popularity as the younger crowd will not be able to match the sonics of great traditional recordings. Plus, they LOVE faders, lights, buttons and Blinky lights. Their recordings and mixes will get BETTER with the hardware, and that in turn will draw more into the hardware fray. Me? I’m spending 50X’s more on hardware and a hybrid mixing approach than on plugins. Plugins make my mixes 2D. Hardware opens things up in an amazing fashion for me. When I get briefs and some of my music is sent for me to “copy” along with a dozen other composers, my stuff sticks out like a golden beacon – even though some of the other writing is really good, the mixes and sonics SUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hardware + Experience in arranging, production and mixing = makes a palpable difference in standing out from my competitors.

    Pro mix engineers will continue to move away from outboard because most of their projects come tracked well with lots of quality expensive outboard already, and the clients are paying about 1/10th what they used to. They are not ignorant. They know the majority of people listen on their phone or laptop and cannot tell quality. Instant recall continue to be a dominating force in driving the quality of music into the toilet.

    Music libraries will continue to experiment with subscriptions. Most will be failures. The RF market and Non-Ex market will grow as composers figure out that traditional PRO back end schemes of back end royalties are doomed for serious cutbacks in income as everything goes streaming. Smart composers will play all fields, but will be moving away from traditional “get paid upfront, loose your master rights and copyright” scenarios.

    Discovery will be the first of many who will continue to try to destroy the PRO collection of royalties paradigm, They may fail initially, but they will continue to throw money at it until they succeed. Or figure out another way.

    The number of production companies who want “the publishing” from the publishers will rise to almost 100%. Making the publishers take 25-40-50 + percent of the composers writing royalties. But it won’t matter because…..the back end is shrinking with everything going streaming anyway.

    The number of “I wanna be a composer” will increase exponentially, and the idiotic concept of “if I give it away for free I can get a foothold in the biz” will continue at alarming rates – virtually decimating what little industry there is left.

    Classes / forums / Subscription plans on “how to make it in the biz” will balloon exponentially as that is one of the few growing and profitable avenues left for those who actually have the knowledge. But – a huge BUT – it will be FLOODED with those who DON’T have the knowledge, preying on the “I wanna be a composer” crowd. Those who actually DO have the knowledge will be turned off by the deceit in this part of the biz.

    ASCAP / BMI / SESAC will continue on status quo mode – being more concerned about SXSW, Sundance, etc. – remaining oblivious until it is too late for them to salvage things. When it’s too late, and they have to lay off staff, THEN they will start rallying for fairness.

    ASCAP / BMI will continue to fight watermarking in favor of traditional ways to discern how to pay their constituents. Writers will continue to change PRO’s, only to be equally frustrated with their new PRO.

    The PMA will continue to be focused on 1995-2005, and will be rallying with the musicians union to turn back the clocks to “how it used to be”. They will fail in that.

    Ultimately, AI, computers and tech will decimate the middle class of composers. Only the elite will thrive. The middle class will have to look elsewhere for income, and the lower class who live in third world countries who produce with kracked libraries and software will continue to eek out a living. Creativity has no nationalistic boundaries. Many of them will be stellar composers – writing for peanuts.

    At some point – maybe too far away for me to partake in – the public will tire of loops, 4 bar compositions, beat makers as “composers”, and laptop productions. Real music will rise like the Phoenix from the ashes of music 2020. Creativity and music can NOT be kept down.

    All in all – the next 20 years will look NOTHING like the last 20.

    I got more, but a man can only ponder so much….

    #33982 Reply
    Art Munson
    Keymaster

    Ahh LAwriter, such a cheery fellow! πŸ™‚

    #33983 Reply
    LAwriter
    Participant

    Ahh LAwriter, such a cheery fellow! ?

    Don’t blame me. πŸ™‚ I didn’t start this thread…. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ if you disagree, let’s hear YOUR predictions!!!! <thumbsup>>
    Happy New Year to Art and ALL!! πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    #33984 Reply
    BEATSLINGER
    Participant

    At some point – maybe too far away for me to partake in – the public will tire of loops, 4 bar compositions, beat makers as β€œcomposers”, and laptop productions. Real music will rise like the Phoenix from the ashes of music 2020. Creativity and music can NOT be kept down.

    I literally feel like I’m sitting at a Movie Theater eating Popcorn; as I watch “Ground-Hog Day”. I keep saying these “How To Make It In The TV/Film Licensing” companies are LITERALLY creating Bottle-necks in the traffic; at the same section of The Freeway EVERYDAY.

    As well, if they DID really know where the Great Placements, and The Nice Gravy Trains Were (By The Way, they DO NOT) “Do You Really Think They Would Give You Their ACE-In-The-Hole?!!”

    “As soon as you start thinking like an Antelope; you will no longer be stuck with The Sheep”

    #33985 Reply
    Advice
    Participant

    My predictions:
    (1) MLR will go IPO and those of us who got in early will get stock options and make tons of money.
    (2) LAwriter will become the eternal optimist (Followed close behind by BEATSLINGER). πŸ˜‰
    (3) ASCAP, BMI, and SESAC will increase PRO payments by 20% just because.
    (4) Scorekeepers will stop doing Scripps placements and pay reparations to all.
    (5) MichaelL will be nominated to take Judge Judy’s place when she retires.
    πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

    #33987 Reply
    BEATSLINGER
    Participant

    (2) LAwriter will become the eternal optimist (Followed close behind by BEATSLINGER). ?

    LOL.
    NO, BEATSLINGER found out how to get to the “Goodie-Bags”

    You better ask somebody!!

    Now, go Rest Your Nerves.

    #33988 Reply
    LAwriter
    Participant

    Ha!! I was listening until you got here….. πŸ™‚

    (3) ASCAP, BMI, and SESAC will increase PRO payments by 20% just because.

    Now I KNOW you’re just fooling around…. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    #33989 Reply
    LAwriter
    Participant

    Actually, I AM an optimist. How can you be in this biz for 25+ years and continue to stay in it if you’re NOT an optimist. Optimism is mandatory.

    Unfortunately (for some), REALISM is also a necessity if you want to continue to survive and prosper. Ignore facts at your own peril.

    #33992 Reply
    cyberk91
    Participant

    oh boy….. guess I really know how to get a conversation started and liven up the forum some… but ….in here I do hear pearls of wisdom no doubt….. πŸ˜€

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