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Ha!! I was listening until you got here….. 🙂
(3) ASCAP, BMI, and SESAC will increase PRO payments by 20% just because.
Now I KNOW you’re just fooling around…. 🙂 🙂
Ahh LAwriter, such a cheery fellow! ?
Don’t blame me. 🙂 I didn’t start this thread…. 🙂 🙂 if you disagree, let’s hear YOUR predictions!!!! <thumbsup>>
Happy New Year to Art and ALL!! 🙂 🙂 🙂My thoughts…..
In no particular order…..
Pro Tools will continue to dominate the high end DAW world. Low end applications / users will continue to fall away from PT. Going most notably towards Cubase and Logic. Avid will not care. They still have the bulk of high end applications wrapped up. I will be sticking with PTHDX. I’m in too deep to mix things up now.
Plug in manufacturers as a whole – for the most part – will still gravitate towards the low hanging fruit. It’s what the uninformed / ignorant public wants. High end creative developers will continue to break new innovative ground, making AMAZING products – and their plugins will be misunderstood by most of the masses who want a new 1176 or a Fairchild plug for $19.99.
Schools will still be “selling the dream” rather than educating their student body on how to actually make a career. The professors teaching will continue to be those who did not (could not?) make it in the actual industry they are teaching about.
Younger mixing engineers will still gravitate towards outboard gear. Outboard hybrid systems will continue to grow in popularity as the younger crowd will not be able to match the sonics of great traditional recordings. Plus, they LOVE faders, lights, buttons and Blinky lights. Their recordings and mixes will get BETTER with the hardware, and that in turn will draw more into the hardware fray. Me? I’m spending 50X’s more on hardware and a hybrid mixing approach than on plugins. Plugins make my mixes 2D. Hardware opens things up in an amazing fashion for me. When I get briefs and some of my music is sent for me to “copy” along with a dozen other composers, my stuff sticks out like a golden beacon – even though some of the other writing is really good, the mixes and sonics SUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hardware + Experience in arranging, production and mixing = makes a palpable difference in standing out from my competitors.
Pro mix engineers will continue to move away from outboard because most of their projects come tracked well with lots of quality expensive outboard already, and the clients are paying about 1/10th what they used to. They are not ignorant. They know the majority of people listen on their phone or laptop and cannot tell quality. Instant recall continue to be a dominating force in driving the quality of music into the toilet.
Music libraries will continue to experiment with subscriptions. Most will be failures. The RF market and Non-Ex market will grow as composers figure out that traditional PRO back end schemes of back end royalties are doomed for serious cutbacks in income as everything goes streaming. Smart composers will play all fields, but will be moving away from traditional “get paid upfront, loose your master rights and copyright” scenarios.
Discovery will be the first of many who will continue to try to destroy the PRO collection of royalties paradigm, They may fail initially, but they will continue to throw money at it until they succeed. Or figure out another way.
The number of production companies who want “the publishing” from the publishers will rise to almost 100%. Making the publishers take 25-40-50 + percent of the composers writing royalties. But it won’t matter because…..the back end is shrinking with everything going streaming anyway.
The number of “I wanna be a composer” will increase exponentially, and the idiotic concept of “if I give it away for free I can get a foothold in the biz” will continue at alarming rates – virtually decimating what little industry there is left.
Classes / forums / Subscription plans on “how to make it in the biz” will balloon exponentially as that is one of the few growing and profitable avenues left for those who actually have the knowledge. But – a huge BUT – it will be FLOODED with those who DON’T have the knowledge, preying on the “I wanna be a composer” crowd. Those who actually DO have the knowledge will be turned off by the deceit in this part of the biz.
ASCAP / BMI / SESAC will continue on status quo mode – being more concerned about SXSW, Sundance, etc. – remaining oblivious until it is too late for them to salvage things. When it’s too late, and they have to lay off staff, THEN they will start rallying for fairness.
ASCAP / BMI will continue to fight watermarking in favor of traditional ways to discern how to pay their constituents. Writers will continue to change PRO’s, only to be equally frustrated with their new PRO.
The PMA will continue to be focused on 1995-2005, and will be rallying with the musicians union to turn back the clocks to “how it used to be”. They will fail in that.
Ultimately, AI, computers and tech will decimate the middle class of composers. Only the elite will thrive. The middle class will have to look elsewhere for income, and the lower class who live in third world countries who produce with kracked libraries and software will continue to eek out a living. Creativity has no nationalistic boundaries. Many of them will be stellar composers – writing for peanuts.
At some point – maybe too far away for me to partake in – the public will tire of loops, 4 bar compositions, beat makers as “composers”, and laptop productions. Real music will rise like the Phoenix from the ashes of music 2020. Creativity and music can NOT be kept down.
All in all – the next 20 years will look NOTHING like the last 20.
I got more, but a man can only ponder so much….
You do not have permission to view this content.Weird. Which then begs the question….why would anyone WANT to sign up to said library. BTW, is XXX some kind of porn music website? It’s hard to keep up with all the cryptic abbreviations.
My $0.02 – not relating to any person or organization mentionioned here (unless it fits of course).
A question for the curious……
Is learning flat out wrong, outdated, shortsighted, or misguided “facts” helpful – or worse than figuring things out for yourself the “hard” way? Will it take you wrong directions? Will it waste your time and money?
Food for thought. Because of all the subscription / course based info out there, almost all of it that I’ve run across has run counter to my personal experience in the business. Just sayin’….
When I comes to libraries, a quick look at their web page will tell me what I need to know. Are they selling to “composers” or are they selling to broadcasters, production companies, videographers, etc.. If composers, I run. Fast. Waste of time. If someone is selling me a “course” of action to “make it”, I’ll look at their credits. One of my earlier posts pointed out a glaringly obvious shortcoming in a sellers reputation. I’ll leave it at that.
Getting involved in one of these organizations is a lot more than the cost of the program. There’s the potential cost of being mislead in the wrong direction. Again, my own personal opinio based on a couple decades + of doing this – not gospel fact.
The new library in question obviously wants to see if he will be “competing” with your previous placement(s). It’s a fair question. If he doesn’t like the answer, then either pull your music from the other library(its) or as mentioned – offer to write him new material.
Personally, I’m liking to keep quite a bit of my catalog NE at this point. Too many disturbing trends in the industry that can lock you down and out in a traditional Ex contract unless the library is well connected.
Easy. Sell a “How to Make it in the Production Music Biz” course. ?
Haha Michael!!! You are not the first person that has suggest that to me. Not really the direction I want to head though. As long as I can make a comfortable living, I’d rather be doing it writing music. More than recording, mixing or performing, WRITING is what makes me happy. Creating something out of nothing.
And I agree, a healthy sense of skepticism would be sage advice to anyone starting out. Especially for those leading the minions to the gold mine. 🙂
LAwriter, I have had a few people say they would like to buy Me Dinner & Drinks (I’m a cheap date, no alcohol; and have been sober close to 9 years) because of “giving a bit of assistance to finding a couple extra coins”..
Good for you Beatslinger!!! <<thumbsup>>. Coins or no coins, we should still do it!! Will be in contact early in the coming year…..
Actually, the easiest way to “get going, and make far less mistakes” is over to your right of your screen.
Does anyone just want to roll up their sleeves and get to it, finding out what works and what doesn’t the hard way anymore? I don’t. LOL
if someone could just tell me how to get rich in the production music biz, I’d really appreciate it. 🙂 :). I’m even willing to buy you dinner if it all works out. LOL
Perhaps some time in this upcoming year it might be good for us to connect!
Indeed!! <thumbsup>
This has me thinking that maybe I should actually start consulting people for a fee.
I actually know where “some” major Gold Mines are, and I have the direct relationships.I’ll be your first client!! 🙂 🙂 I need some new venue’s…..
<<edit>>. In the spirit of holiday good will, I’m going to edit this post and say just one thing : Caveat Emptor. Nuff said. Merry Christmas all!
because it is closing around us FAST!!”
Yes. I’m sure it feels like that. The reality is, if you’re just getting to the party now, you’re a decade or two late. Sorry. It’s the truth. It would be hard to describe the current production music industry as a “growth” industry in comparison to a decade ago. Whenever deciding to pursue financial opportunities, the question I ask – Is the industry growing or contracting. For those willing to be honest, we all know the realities. The newcomers don’t, and they are looking for someone who will tell them the the opportunities are endless. Hence – these types of “how to” courses..
As for the 10….Hahahaaaa! I left LA because of the 10 Fry. And the 405. And the 101. And the 134. And the 210. And….. 🙂 🙂
I didn’t “create” any music, but I did listen to a few of their examples. If this is the future of music libraries and AI, I feel so much better and I will sleep easier tonight….